Deepwater horizon oil spill notes

by George Schils

How does the Deepwater Horizon oil spill compare to the Exon Valdez oil spill, and how does it rate next to the worst oil spills on record? I try to answer this question using some tentative numbers.

Here are some notes on the Deepwater horizon oil spill. I have been doing a set of crude calculations. The numbers and calculations here are only tentative and may be overly pessimistic.

These are some (slightly edited) excerpts from emails written by myself. They contain a crude set of calculations along with some references.

Also see these Deepwater Horizon notes from Wikipedia.

Note set 1

If it’s any consolation, BP’s stock has dropped a lot (50%) : http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37602159/ns/business-world_business/ 2. The CEO will probably be fired. 3. BP possibly may not survive the backlash and repercussions, etc. 4. Lawsuits are just beginning, etc. 5. Very possible end for BP in America, period.

Their plan to reap Wall street profits has not worked so far. (See ref.) The company is losing value quickly and if gulf lawsuits mount and people question their ability to pay, then their stock will drop further. And they might not be able to get out of that vicious spiral. So it could just be the end for them – declare bankruptcy in America. But none of that will still fix the gulf.

Also see upped spill estimate: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/scientists-hike-estimates-on-flow-rate-of-bp-spill-2010-06-10

Note set 2

From the upped spill estimate: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/scientists-hike-estimates-on-flow-rate-of-bp-spill-2010-06-10 article:

Old estimates: 12000 to 19000 barrels per day = 30 to 58 million gallons over 60 days. (There is an error in the article: 12000 barrels is 504000 gallons not 840000 as stated in the article.)
New estimate: 40000 barrels per day = 101 million gallons over 60 days. (e.g., 40000 * 42 * 60 / 1.0e6 = 100.8).

Also consider:

The Exon Valdeez spill was 11.4 million gallons as claimed in the above article.
Oil barrel = 42 US gallons -> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barrel_(volume).

The spill therefore could be around 10 times worse than the Exon Valdeez, and the numbers are still climbing. The number 60 days that I am using is probably a bit too high though, but that’s what the numbers look like.

Note set 3

Here are some more tentative notes.

See the Exon Valdez article -> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exxon_Valdez_oil_spill
Largest oil spills -> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_spills#Largest_oil_spills
Using “100,000 tonnes or 30 million US gallons” as the conversion (from above), the worst oil spill (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lakeview_Gusher) of 1,230,000 tons translates to 1,230,000 * 30e6/1e5 = 369 million gallons. (More accurately “One tonne of crude oil is roughly equal to 308 US gallons”).
So we are still a factor of 3 or 4 better than the worse spills.