George Schils Business Blog - BZ Bread

What is the "average" CPI? An analysis of government CPI data from the years 1913 to 2007 produces an "average" yearly percentage cpi increase of 3.34%. This is based on a least squares (exponential) fit to the yearly government CPI data over this time span.

Cpi data shows another decline from year to year for June. From June 2008 to June 2009, the CPI showed a -1.43% increase. Similarly year to year monthly decreases have occurred for the last four months (Mar, Apr, May, Jun). It appears that the rate of decrease is increasing.

The table below shows this data. The second row is monthly data for year 2008, the third row is monthly data for year 2009, and the fourth row is the year to year percentage increase for that month.

Jan     Feb     Mar     Apr     May     Jun
632.3   634.14  639.64  643.52  648.93  655.47
632.49  635.64  637.18  638.77  640.62  646.12
0.03    0.24    -0.38   -0.74   -1.28   -1.43

Data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and series CUUR0000AA0 is used. Data here is normalized so that 1967=100.

The BLS report for June is given here.

Analysis of cpi from data released on August 14, 2009 shows another year over year decline. The months March through July of 2009 have showed decreases in the cpi from the same month a year ago. It appears that the rate of decline is increasing.

From July 2008 to July 2009, the cpi showed a 2.1% drop.

The percentage increases for the last seven months are tabulated below. Decreases are seen for the last five months.

Jan. 2008 - Jan. 2009        0.030049   
Feb. 2008 - Feb. 2009        0.236226   
Mar. 2008 - Mar. 2009        -0.38366   
Apr. 2008 - Apr. 2009        -0.7372    
May. 2008 - May. 2009        -1.28164   
Jun. 2008 - Jun. 2009        -1.42691   
Jul. 2008 - Jul. 2009        -2.09724

Data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and series CUUR0000AA0 is used. Data here is normalized so that 1967=100.

Analysis of cpi from data released on September 16, 2009 shows that the cpi increased by 0.2% from July to August, but that the cpi is lower by 1.5% from the same month (August 2008) a year ago. The data is given below.

12 month percent change

Year Jan Feb Mar  Apr  May  Jun  Jul  Aug
2009 0.0 0.2 -0.4 -0.7 -1.3 -1.4 -2.1 -1.5 

1 month percent change

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul  Aug 
2009 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.9 -0.2 0.2 

Data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and series CUUR0000AA0 is used. Data here is normalized so that 1967=100.

Analysis of cpi from data released on December 16, 2009 shows that the cpi increased by 0.1% from October to November. The cpi is higher by 1.8% from the same month (November 2008) a year ago. The data is given below. For the first time since February, the cpi is higher compared to the same month a year ago.

12 month percent change

May     Jun     Jul     Aug    Sep    Oct    Nov
-1.28   -1.43   -2.10   -1.48  -1.29  -0.18  1.84

1 month percent change

May     Jun     Jul     Aug    Sep    Oct    Nov
0.289   0.859   -0.159  0.224  0.062  0.096  0.071

Data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and series CUUR0000AA0 is used. Data here is normalized so that 1967=100.